What are the 4 levels of strategy under uncertainty?

Level 1: Clear-enough future (Single, dependable view of the future) Level 2: Alternative futures (Limited set of known future outcomes) Level 3: Range of futures (Range of possible future outcomes) Level 4: True uncertainty (Not even a range of possible future outcomes) Observations: - Most future uncertainty situations are levels 2 or 3. But many managers and strategists see them either 1 or 4. - Choose future-management toolkit that fits with the situation’s uncertainty level. It’s better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong!